Indexation & budget
Planning on assumptions is how budgets quietly walk away.
Indexation, volume commitments and a ‘normal year’ from 2019: three assumptions that undermine a catering budget if you do not test them every quarter.
The classic plan: take last year, lift the index onto it, keep the mix constant. That works until attendance drops, grab-and-go grows, or the index formula measures something other than your plate.
Three assumptions we see derail most often: (1) attendance stays equal to pre-COVID or to HR headcount, (2) the mix is stable, (3) the contract index covers real food cost. None of the three is a law of nature.
Test them. Put budget next to actual, split volume, mix and price effects, and see whether indexation does what you thought. The conversation with the caterer then becomes short and factual — not moral.
Test in February, not in November. Then you still steer the year while it is running.